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Nifty Bank Post RBI Monetary Policy Surprise!

RBI surprised everyone with no change in  interest rate. The sharp move(spike as it is recovered immediately) looks like 3rd wave of ED, if it is one. RSI on daily chart is still showing divergence and hence possibility of up move is quite strong. 

Today 18600 area (Gann level 18599) acted as resistance. Yesterday, I mentioned that 4th wave(now I think that may be "b" of 3rd) will reach 18600 level. We saw big fall from that level on account of no rate cut by RBI.


It is difficult to predict completion of Ending Diagonal, as waves inside triangle can take different shapes and may stretch a bit more. After confirmation of 4th wave completion, break of channel line is first confirmation. 2nd confirmation is when it takes out 4th wave level. So how we consider today's low is 3rd or 5th wave? We have to wait till index take out 18713. Other way is to look out for other tools. Please take look at following chart.


This is Inside Pitchfork. The middle line is acting as strong resistance. Today's low bounced back from bottom line. So unless we have daily close above middle line(median) (for up move) or below bottom line(1 standard deviation(SD) from median) (for down move), it will be range bound. Strategy should be to sell at middle line and buy at bottom line or above 0.5 SD line.

Another chart with different reference point for Inside pitchfork.


Today the 0.5 SD line from center line acted as resistance while today's low bounced back from 1 SD line.

NB: The Dec 7 date gave us new LOW. Gann Date from my calculation was Dec 6, but important event was scheduled on Dec 7. Hence we have short term new low today after 18143 Trump/Modi low.

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