Skip to main content

Bank Nifty - For Week starting Dec 26

In the last trading session Bank Nifty reached low of 17819. Looks it is in corrective wave of last impulse. Further down move in card. Let us take a look at Bank nifty in various time frame.
Monthly chart is showing possibility of further down move in coming months. The index reversed from Top of bollinger band(BB). Bollinger bands are flat and possibility of range-bound movement within top and bottom bands is likely. So possibility of further down move in coming months very likely.
In Weekly chart, RSI reversed from 50 level generating a SELL signal 2 weeks ago. Bollinger bands started to expand. The possibility of 17600/17000 this week can not be ruled out.
In Daily chart, Index just moved on downside after trading within a range (shown by horizontal channel) for 20 trading days. The breaking of channel is giving target of 17500 level. RSI reversed from 50 level generating SELL signal on Dec 9. We can expect down move till RSI reaches 30 or below. Also BB were contracted and now expanding. So possibility of sharp down move is high. Also Index moved below 200 DMA(daily moving average) that is consider important level as support/resistance and TREND deciding level.
Hourly chart is clearly providing a trading strategy. The index falls and then corrective move goes back to middle line of Bollinger band(Shown in RED). It is actually 20 period Moving Average. So SELL Bank Nifty(Or Buy Put/Sell Call Option) when index reaches Middle BB line (or upper end of red line channel) and exit when index falls below lower band of BB (Blue line) or reaches near lower line of red channel. Buying Call/Selling Put option (Taking Long position) is not good idea. Just exit at bottom of channel and wait for index to reach upper end of channel/middle line of BB for Shorting or buying put/selling call option.

Also observe that Hourly RSI is providing clue for entry and exit. When RSI reaches 25 level impulse starts correcting and when RSI reaches 44 level corrective move gets matured. So 25 is support and 44 is resistance for hourly RSI. If RSI brakes 44 level and move up then we can look for reversal or bigger correction. If hourly RSI breaks 25, we can expect sharper down move.

The possible overall structure of Bank Nifty is shown below:

The wave/impulse started at 20300 is completed at 18188. the 5th wave of this impulse completed in ED as shown by small blue nos (1-5). The wave 2 is Irregular correction where wave B went below wave A. Wave 2 completed at 18739. Wave 3 is in progress with i and ii completed. Wave ii is again an Irregular correction. Wave 3-iii already started and we should expect a sharp move in coming days(It seems early series of i-ii waves are going on in 3-iii).

The Index moved below level of Dec 21/22. Will these levels now remain protected and Bank Nifty remain below these levels for coming months?

Note: Prime Minister talked about more tax on Capital market Income. How market react to this on Monday?

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

DAX analysis for a client

DAX Index Analysis For upto Feb 29, 2020 : Daily chart shows prices are at Strong resistance zone at upper trend line (red color). On Friday (Feb 14, 2020) it formed a Doji candle that is a sign of reversal as it formed at top and at resistance zone. So correction or reversal from this level is very likely. If prices cross above 13950 and sustains above then Breakout on upside is possible.   But this looks very unlikely for at least few days as RSI indicator is also at resistance. At present it is in no trade zone. Best scenario is to wait for price to break 13600. Trade opportunities: Long Trade:   Above 13950 for target of 14300. Short Trade: Below 13600 for target of 13450/13400 and below 13400 for target of 13100/13000 DAX Analysis for Swing Trade on Weekly Charts: Weekly chart shows price is at multiple channels and trend lines resistance. Trade opportunities: For few weeks or months holding Long Trade:   Above 13950 for target of 14300/14800 and brea

Bullish Bets for coming week (Apr 13-17)

I have summarised my analysis in the following table. These are bullish stocks. Please do your own analysis and these are not recommendations but only for learning purposes Stock CMP Tgt 1 Tgt 2 Tgt 3 ITC 185.25 203 210   VEDL 76.8 92 96   NCC 20.15 23 26 28 RBL 120.85 134 140   SUNTV 338.3 360 365 390 CANBK 91.5 111 118 121 SBIN 187.75 194 202 211 RECLTD 89 101 106   INDIGO 1041.95 1100 1140 1160 HINDPETRO 207.85 218 223 227 Hindalco 107.55 113 127 134 CHOLAFIN 171.75 185 204 225 BHARATFORG 245.55 277 288 299 SRTRANSFIN 675.95 730 785 840 .

Bank Nifty Bigger Time Frame Analysis

I have posted following weekly chart of Bank Nifty in my Dec 15 post. This chart shows similarity in patterns. The pattern started in Aug 2013 and completed in Oct 2016 as shown below: This is "Extracting Triangle Pattern" as per Advanced Elliott Wave (Neo Wave). Ongoing pattern looks similar to Extracting Triangle Pattern and as per this pattern wave D seems to be in progress. After completion of wave D, index will move towards upward channel line(RED) in wave E. Once the pattern gets completed, we should expect index to go below wave D. I am just aware about Neo wave patterns but do not have knowledge about its calculations/counts. In Extracting Triangle pattern, each successive wave in the direction of trend contracts while corrective waves expand (wave A< wave C < wave E, wave D > wave B) It looks similar to Head & Shoulder pattern So possibility of Down move is quite high post Jan 2017.