Skip to main content

Bank Nifty Post FED Rate Cut

All major events are over and market is not going anywhere. For last 3 weeks Bank Nifty is trading between 18600 and 18150 with 18500 as strong resistance and 18300 as strong support. Prices below support or above resistance hardly sustain. 

Today index opened Gap down reacting to Fed Rate cut and Hawkish Tone about future numbers of rate cuts in 2017. Sharply recovered, that become common pattern now a days to react negatively to adverse news and then recover sharply.




Wave b of upside correction is completed at 18143 (Exactly at Trump Low). Index recovered sharply and "a/i" of wave c on upside completed at 18526 and wave "b/ii" is in progress, that is expected complete nearby 18300 level, that is acting as strong support. Post completion of wave"b/ii", wave "c/iii" of wave c on upside can reach 18800/18950 if it can take out resistance at 19700 level ( we saw index coming down 2 times after it crossed 18700 to 18200 level). Either we have triangle pattern complex correction(abcde) or wave c may form ending diagonal in its 5th wave.

Another possibility is shown in the following chart.


This chart shows complex correction started on Nov 28 at low of 18195 and wave e of complex correction started from today's low. Target for wave e 18700/18800.

It seems next 1-2 weeks Bank Nifty remain in the same range as it is for last 3 weeks (18700-18200). 

The quarterly  corporate earning/result season would start in 2nd week of Jan 2017 and market may remain sideways with negative bias till Jan 2017 end. The negative effect of demonetization on corporate earnings may lead market to steeper fall.

I am posting a bigger time frame weekly chart that indicating possibility of  down move in coming months.



Watch similarity in the pattern. I will discuss this in weekly update.



Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Intraday Index Options Trading by Degree Gann Number System ! E-book available on Amazon - Download FREE!

  For the next 3-days, E-book is available FREE for download! Take advantage of this promotion. Requesting to write a review on amazon. Download link:- https:// amazon.in/dp/B09DHFS5KJ

Nifty Time Cycles

The following chart shows various time cycles on Nifty. What Happened? In 2019, Gann 90 year cycle completed. This cycle comes from 1839 depression followed by 1929 depression. In Feb-2020, 20-year cycle completed from Feb 2000 Top In Jan-2020, 144-month cycle completed from Top made in Jan-2008 before the 2008 financial crisis In Dec-2019, 3-year cycle completed from Low made in Dec-2016 post Demonetisation So we saw a big fall as major cycles came together. What next for Nifty? In Oct-2020, 144-month cycle from Low made in Oct-2008 during the 2008 financial crisis, will complete In Nov-2020, 10-year cycle from Top made in Nov-2010 will complete In Dec-2020, 288-month cycle from Low made in Dec-1996 will complete In Feb-2020, 60-month cycle from Low made in Feb-2016 will complete In Feb-2020, 13-month cycle (it is observed Nifty makes Bottom from Top in 11-13 months) from Top made in Jan-2020 will complete In Sep-2021, 20-year cycle from Low made in Sep-200...

VIX Analysis

The daily VIX chart shows the formation of Doji candles at the bottom and reversal. The daily RSI crossed the previous resistance level of 40. The MACD signal gave bullish crossover suggesting bullish move in VIX. So the daily chart shows the possibility of VIX moving towards 28 levels in the coming days. The weekly chart shows the formation of wedge and reversal from the bottom. VIX may move towards the upper wedge line @ 29-30. So VIX suggesting the bearish mood of the market and hence the high possibility of fall in Nifty-50 and Banknifty in the coming days/weeks. VIX Gann Box: The daily Gann Box shows a reversal from the mid-zone of time factor points. The next time factor date is Jul-21. So will VIX continue to move high till Jul-21 or it will reverse from angle point? Wait and watch. Using VIX to spot Intraday Reversal on Indices: VIX is a very useful indicator to spot reversal during day trade. If the price of an index moves up and @ resistance zone watch values of VIX. If VIX s...