VIX Analysis

The daily VIX chart shows the formation of Doji candles at the bottom and reversal. The daily RSI crossed the previous resistance level of 40. The MACD signal gave bullish crossover suggesting bullish move in VIX. So the daily chart shows the possibility of VIX moving towards 28 levels in the coming days.

The weekly chart shows the formation of wedge and reversal from the bottom. VIX may move towards the upper wedge line @ 29-30.

So VIX suggesting the bearish mood of the market and hence the high possibility of fall in Nifty-50 and Banknifty in the coming days/weeks.

VIX Gann Box:

The daily Gann Box shows a reversal from the mid-zone of time factor points. The next time factor date is Jul-21. So will VIX continue to move high till Jul-21 or it will reverse from angle point? Wait and watch.

Using VIX to spot Intraday Reversal on Indices:

VIX is a very useful indicator to spot reversal during day trade.

If the price of an index moves up and @ resistance zone watch values of VIX. If VIX starts increasing with this upmove instead of reducing, that is a high probability signal of reversal from the resistance zone.

The reverse is also true. If with a downfall in an index VIX starts increasing while the price is @ support, it is signaling reversal from the bottom.

This rule is not applicable if there is an event/announcement/news is scheduled as VIX will increase due to the uncertainty of the outcome of this event.

Recent examples of trade captured by me with this method:

On Jul-08, when Banknifty made a high of 23080 after 2 pm. I was observing VIX which was continuously increasing and 23000-23050 was a strong resistance zone as it was Upper wedge line resistance. What happened after that? A big and sharp fall of 500 points in the next hour.

Similarly On Jul-13, when Banknifty opened Gap up and made the top of 22657 VIX was up. For banknifty 22630-50 was the resistance zone. In a whole day, we got a good fall of 600+ points.

Comments

Bank Nifty for Week Starting Jan 16, 2017

Last week Bank Nifty made big up move of 650 points. High made is 18966. It looks like it is ready for further up move. On hourly chart Middle BB line(RED color) is providing support and Index may again move up towards upper line of Blue Channel. The Best trading strategy is now to go Long when Index is bouncing from Middle BB line and Exit when it is near upper line of Blue Channel. Hourly RSI shows Resistance at 85 level and Support at 59 level. So Blue channel along with RSI levels are good indicators for trade. It is not good idea to go short as Up Momentum is strong. If Index breaks Middle BB line then only short positions should be taken. If Bank Nifty breaks 18850/18800 then we may see it reach quickly to 18650/18600. Also it may break RSI support level of 59 for major correction. We may see Index moving along Upper BB line (Blue color) on Daily chart. Index may face resistance at 19150/19200 level. If it crosses 19200 it can reach to 19500/197000. Daily RSI is

Bank Nifty EOD Feb 7 Update!

Bank Nifty is in consolidation/correction mode. Today it moved in a very narrow range and it seems that it is under time correction before a BIG move. It is awaiting RBI monetary policy decision due on Feb 8 and bank Nifty may make Big move on Feb 9 in either direction depending on market's reaction to RBI decision. Bank Nifty 15 min chart shows wave a and wave b completed and wave c is in progress. It may take triangle pattern of correction as uncertainty of event outcome is playing out. It may correct to 20250/20030 levels.

Hindalco - On the Verge of Break-Down?

Hindalco Daily chart is posted below: Daily chart shows prices are facing resistance at Gann level 183 and now prices are near lower band of Bollinger Bands(BB) that are expanding. Hence, a big fall is expected in next 2-3 trading sessions with target of next Gann level 157. Daily RSI is also broke 50 level coming from upside overbought 70 level that signals further fall in coming days.

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