Skip to main content

Nifty Bank Post Ending Diagonal Move!



Post ED, we normally see wave in the form of A-B-C pattern. The index moved back to channel line, but enter inside channel. Normally it would not go so below channel line. Normally it is part of wave "a" of A that goes back to channel level, but this time it is wave "b" of A that enter channel and hence probably went much below channel line. 

Wave "b" of A is a-b-c pattern with flat b. It seems "b" of B is completed at 18366 and wave "c" of A is started. Target for wave "c" is :

% of a

Target - c
50%
391.50
18757.50
61.80%
483.89
18849.89
76.40%
598.21
18964.21
78.60%
615.44
18981.44
100.00%
783.00
19149.00

Resistance are at 18816/18930/19150.

Let us analyze possible move post ED. I have posted below chart of move after ED completion on Oct 4, 2016. The move is on downside.


The analysis of price and time ratios of various waves is shown below:

Wave
Price
Ratio(%)
Time(Min)
Ratio(%)

A





a
313

205


b
114
36.42
110
53.66 
b/a
c
186
59.42
65
31.71 
c/a






A
385

380


B
142
36.88
205
53.95 
B/A
C
244
63.38
120
31.58 
C/A

We can observe that post ED impulses are sharp and corrections are also quick and do not take much time as normally the case of corrective wave post impulse. The corrective wave "b" of A took only 53% time of "a". Also observe similarity in the ratios (a/b = A/B; a/c = A/C) in time as well as in price. Also see both wave "c" of A and C are very sharp.

Will tomorrow's wave "c"(if it is one) will be as sharp and complete very quickly(32% of a's time i.e. within 5 hours). Dec 13 is Gann date and we may see sharp move of 500+ points with big GAP UP. Or will it form some different pattern such as complex correction ahead of fed policy announcement.

Will this kind of similarity come into play post this ED? Fractal nature of wave means such similarity is possible.

(The representation of future moves is for experimental purpose only and we want to observe if it unfold in a similar manner.)

Wave "b" of A retraced almost 50% price and also consume 50% time of "a". "c" may get completed tomorrow. Then wave B may take 2 days till Fed announcement is out. Post that we may see rally in the form of wave C. Let us wait and watch how it unfolds!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Bank Nifty for Week Starting Jan 16, 2017

Last week Bank Nifty made big up move of 650 points. High made is 18966. It looks like it is ready for further up move. On hourly chart Middle BB line(RED color) is providing support and Index may again move up towards upper line of  Blue Channel.  The Best trading strategy is now to go Long when Index is bouncing from Middle BB line and Exit when it is near upper line of Blue Channel. Hourly RSI shows Resistance at 85 level and Support at 59 level. So Blue channel along with RSI levels are good indicators for trade.  It is not good idea to go short as Up Momentum is strong. If Index breaks Middle BB line then only short positions should be taken. If Bank Nifty breaks 18850/18800 then we may see it reach quickly to 18650/18600. Also it may break RSI support level of 59 for major correction. We may see Index moving along Upper BB line (Blue color) on Daily chart. Index may face resistance at 19150/19200 level. If it crosses 19200 it can reach to 19500/197000. Daily RSI is

Bank Nifty EOD Feb 7 Update!

Bank Nifty is in consolidation/correction mode. Today it moved in a very narrow range and it seems that it is under time correction before a BIG move. It is awaiting RBI monetary policy decision due on Feb 8 and bank Nifty may make Big move on Feb 9 in either direction depending on market's reaction to RBI decision. Bank Nifty 15 min chart shows wave a and wave b completed and wave c is in progress. It may take triangle pattern of correction as uncertainty of event outcome is playing out. It may correct to 20250/20030 levels.

Hindalco - On the Verge of Break-Down?

Hindalco Daily chart is posted below: Daily chart shows prices are facing resistance at Gann level 183 and now prices are near lower band of Bollinger Bands(BB) that are expanding. Hence, a big fall is expected in next 2-3 trading sessions with target of next Gann level 157. Daily RSI is also broke 50 level coming from upside overbought  70 level that signals further fall in coming days.