Post ED, we normally see wave
in the form of A-B-C pattern. The index moved back to channel line, but enter inside channel. Normally it
would not go so below channel line. Normally it is part of wave "a"
of A that goes back to channel level, but this time it is wave "b" of
A that enter channel and hence probably went much below channel line.
Wave
"b" of A is a-b-c pattern with flat b. It seems "b" of B is
completed at 18366 and wave "c" of A is started. Target for wave
"c" is :
% of a
|
Target - c
|
|
50%
|
391.50
|
18757.50
|
61.80%
|
483.89
|
18849.89
|
76.40%
|
598.21
|
18964.21
|
78.60%
|
615.44
|
18981.44
|
100.00%
|
783.00
|
19149.00
|
Resistance are at
18816/18930/19150.
Let us analyze possible move post
ED. I have posted below chart of move after ED completion on Oct 4, 2016. The
move is on downside.
The analysis of price and time
ratios of various waves is shown below:
Wave
|
Price
|
Ratio(%)
|
Time(Min)
|
Ratio(%)
|
|
A
|
|||||
a
|
313
|
205
|
|||
b
|
114
|
36.42
|
110
|
53.66
|
b/a
|
c
|
186
|
59.42
|
65
|
31.71
|
c/a
|
A
|
385
|
380
|
|||
B
|
142
|
36.88
|
205
|
53.95
|
B/A
|
C
|
244
|
63.38
|
120
|
31.58
|
C/A
|
We can observe that post ED
impulses are sharp and corrections are also quick and do not take much time as
normally the case of corrective wave post impulse. The corrective wave
"b" of A took only 53% time of "a". Also observe similarity
in the ratios (a/b = A/B; a/c = A/C) in time as well as in price. Also see
both wave "c" of A and C are very sharp.
Will tomorrow's wave
"c"(if it is one) will be as sharp and complete very quickly(32% of
a's time i.e. within 5 hours). Dec 13 is Gann date and we may see sharp move of
500+ points with big GAP UP. Or will it form some different pattern such as complex correction ahead of fed policy announcement.
Will this kind of similarity come
into play post this ED? Fractal nature of wave means such similarity is
possible.
(The representation of future
moves is for experimental purpose only and we want to observe if it unfold in a
similar manner.)
Wave "b" of A
retraced almost 50% price and also consume 50% time of "a". "c" may get completed tomorrow. Then wave B may take 2 days till Fed announcement is out. Post that we may see rally in the form of wave C. Let us wait and watch how it unfolds!
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