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BankNifty Monthly Analysis For Jul-2020

The observation on Monthly Banknifty chart:

  • The 3 months from the top made in Dec-2019 to the low of Mar-2020
  • 3 months from Mar-2020 ends in Jun-2020. Possible Trend change.
  • The Mar low to Jun top monthly candle pattern looks like flat A-B-C correction of the wave from the top of Dec-2019. So the further down move is expected.
  • The banknifty is now near the resistance of the monthly 70-EMA that provided strong support earlier. It may now provide strong resistance.
  • The 14-period RSI on the monthly chart is @ res level of 40(40.73).

All these points directing towards the high probability of down move towards Mar low or much lower in the coming months.
The 2-Monthly chart shows bearish MA crossover (EMA-14 and SMA-20)

The 3-Monthly chart also shows bearish crossover (9-EMA &14-SMA)
14-period RSI is @ Resistance level of 50

Gann Monthly Angle Chart:

Reversal from Gann Angle.

Gann Box:

The Monthly Gann Box suggesting trend reversal possibility as per time factor (the vertical line of 0.25-1/4th part of Box). The earlier reversal was from 1/8th of Box (0.125 vertical line) in Mar-2020.

VIX :

The monthly angle chart shows a reversal from angle and Doji candle formation which is a reversal pattern. So an increase in VIX is very likely. 

It would be interesting to see if it opens at 1/1 angle or take support @ 1/1 angle in the month of July.

The idea behind posting various charts is that all studies are aligned towards trend reversal. So we need to be cautious on the upside.

I have a strong bias for bearish move in the coming months.
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