BanknIfty Update for Jul-15, 2020

Banknifty opened Gap Down and continuously moved down. In the last 2 days, it almost falls more than 1200 points. We are able to capture this move from almost the top of 23000.

The daily chart shows Banknifty took support at 30-EMA levels. MACD signal gave a bearish crossover signaling possibility of further fall in the coming days. RSI @ significant levels of 50.

Break of 20900 could lead to a sharp fall towards 19700/19500.

On the hourly chart, the MACD signal gave bearish crossover yesterday, and we saw a good fall in Banknifty.

Gann Box:

Weekly Gann Box shows Banknifty exactly changed the trend from the time factor zone. Also, the weekly opening was near the angle and it reversed after hitting angle and gave a good fall. It signaling a bearish trend for the coming weeks.

On the daily Gann Box chart, we can see today Banknifty opened near angle, hit angle, and reversed sharply giving good down move.

FNO Data:

The future OI decreased by 7% signaling short covering with fall. The spot to future premium is decreased to 4 from 83. My observation with the premium for last week is it is playing contra. When there is reduction in premium Banknifty moves up and when premium increases it falls.

Trade Plan:

Above 24540 targets are 21650/21700/21800

Below 21300 targets are 21100/21050/20950

If 20900 breaks then the targets are 20400/20100. 20400 is Gann Degree Number for Banknifty.

I have a bullish bias for the short term if Banknifty holds the 21100-20900 zone. We may get corrective move towards 21800/22000 or one more legs of up move towards 22500. Wait and watch.

Comments

VIX Analysis

The daily VIX chart shows the formation of Doji candles at the bottom and reversal. The daily RSI crossed the previous resistance level of 40. The MACD signal gave bullish crossover suggesting bullish move in VIX. So the daily chart shows the possibility of VIX moving towards 28 levels in the coming days. The weekly chart shows the formation of wedge and reversal from the bottom. VIX may move towards the upper wedge line @ 29-30. So VIX suggesting the bearish mood of the market and hence the high possibility of fall in Nifty-50 and Banknifty in the coming days/weeks. VIX Gann Box: The daily Gann Box shows a reversal from the mid-zone of time factor points. The next time factor date is Jul-21. So will VIX continue to move high till Jul-21 or it will reverse from angle point? Wait and watch. Using VIX to spot Intraday Reversal on Indices: VIX is a very useful indicator to spot reversal during day trade. If the price of an index moves up and @ resistance zone watch values of VIX. If VIX s...

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BankNifty Update For Jul-09,2020 - Weekly Expiry

Banknifty opened Gap up @ 22700 and then achieved all our bullish targets of 23900/23000. But the upmove was very choppy and looked like terminating pattern and was not easy to trade. So I did not take a trade on the upside. My observation was Banknifty good up (250-300 points) while Nifty was not at all moving up and was just 10-15 points up and VIX was increasing. That was a signal that there is a high probability of reversal. (I twitted this around 12.30 pm). Banknifty continued its upmove and VIX was not falling, so I was sure that reversal is on the card from the strong resistance zone of 23900-23000/50. In yesterday's post, I mentioned about daily RSI @ resistance. That was another reason I was expecting a high probability of fall after it moved higher levels to come to at least yesterday's close levels or below. I got down-trade from almost 23000 to 22700 (got out earlier as it was intraday and not much time left though I was expecting at least 22600. It gave a much lowe...

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