BankNifty Update for Jun-19, 2020

Banknifty moved up today as expected as per the post on Jun-16 (Update for Jun-17). It almost achieved our first swing target of 21100 (Today's top is 21028).

The daily chart shows Banknifty took good support at MAs and RSI also reversed from 50 levels (Jun-15 close). So further upmove is very likely.

The hourly chart shows a bullish MA crossover (30-EMA and 40-MA). Banknifty crossed resistance of trendline. Also, MACD crossed the "0" level indicating a bullish move.

FNO data:

Future OI is increased by 12.64% indicating long build-up. The spot to future discount is still high @ 44 (reduced from 54).

India VIX Gann Box:

VIX is facing resistance at a major angle and today was time factor day. So it cooled off. VIX may provide us guidance on further direction of Markets.

Trade Plan:

Intraday

Above 21100 targets are 21500/21800

Below 20700 targets are 20550/20400

Swing Trade:

Above 21100 targets are 21800/22500/23300

Below 20400 targets are 19700

Comments

VIX Analysis

The daily VIX chart shows the formation of Doji candles at the bottom and reversal. The daily RSI crossed the previous resistance level of 40. The MACD signal gave bullish crossover suggesting bullish move in VIX. So the daily chart shows the possibility of VIX moving towards 28 levels in the coming days. The weekly chart shows the formation of wedge and reversal from the bottom. VIX may move towards the upper wedge line @ 29-30. So VIX suggesting the bearish mood of the market and hence the high possibility of fall in Nifty-50 and Banknifty in the coming days/weeks. VIX Gann Box: The daily Gann Box shows a reversal from the mid-zone of time factor points. The next time factor date is Jul-21. So will VIX continue to move high till Jul-21 or it will reverse from angle point? Wait and watch. Using VIX to spot Intraday Reversal on Indices: VIX is a very useful indicator to spot reversal during day trade. If the price of an index moves up and @ resistance zone watch values of VIX. If VIX s...

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BankNifty Update For Jul-09,2020 - Weekly Expiry

Banknifty opened Gap up @ 22700 and then achieved all our bullish targets of 23900/23000. But the upmove was very choppy and looked like terminating pattern and was not easy to trade. So I did not take a trade on the upside. My observation was Banknifty good up (250-300 points) while Nifty was not at all moving up and was just 10-15 points up and VIX was increasing. That was a signal that there is a high probability of reversal. (I twitted this around 12.30 pm). Banknifty continued its upmove and VIX was not falling, so I was sure that reversal is on the card from the strong resistance zone of 23900-23000/50. In yesterday's post, I mentioned about daily RSI @ resistance. That was another reason I was expecting a high probability of fall after it moved higher levels to come to at least yesterday's close levels or below. I got down-trade from almost 23000 to 22700 (got out earlier as it was intraday and not much time left though I was expecting at least 22600. It gave a much lowe...

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