BankNifty Update For Jun-12, 2020

As expected today's expiry was fiery one! Once Banknifty broke 21100, it achieved our target of 20700, making a low of 20525. Yesterday's RSI level of 60 and a inside bar was one of the clues for such a move possibility. Also, VIX constantly suggesting down bias as there is no fall in VIX with upmove and rather we see an increase in its value.

There is a strong possibility of reversal of the trend and we may see a sharp down move in the coming days/weeks. This confirmation will happen only when Banknifty breaks 20300 levels.

The daily chart shows Banknifty still holding 20400-300 zone. If it opens the gap down below 20300 then we may get a good down move towards 20000/19700/19500/19000.

The hourly chart showing MACD crossing zero which is a strong bearish signal. Bearish MA crossover worked well. Below 20300, supports are 20100/19700/20450/19000.

F & O Data:

Banknifty spot to future discount is 16 (changed from a premium of 19 yesterday, change of -35 points). OI spurts data shows a 40.6% change in OI. Future OI decreased by 6%, suggesting long position unwinding.

India VIX:

Keep a close watch on VIX. It is likely to move up sharply in the coming days.

Trade Plan:

Global clues suggesting possible BIG Gap down opening tomorrow.

Below 20300 targets are 20100/19700/19500/19000

The above 20700 targets are 20900/21100.

Comments

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Nifty Time Cycles

The following chart shows various time cycles on Nifty. What Happened? In 2019, Gann 90 year cycle completed. This cycle comes from 1839 depression followed by 1929 depression. In Feb-2020, 20-year cycle completed from Feb 2000 Top In Jan-2020, 144-month cycle completed from Top made in Jan-2008 before the 2008 financial crisis In Dec-2019, 3-year cycle completed from Low made in Dec-2016 post Demonetisation So we saw a big fall as major cycles came together. What next for Nifty? In Oct-2020, 144-month cycle from Low made in Oct-2008 during the 2008 financial crisis, will complete In Nov-2020, 10-year cycle from Top made in Nov-2010 will complete In Dec-2020, 288-month cycle from Low made in Dec-1996 will complete In Feb-2020, 60-month cycle from Low made in Feb-2016 will complete In Feb-2020, 13-month cycle (it is observed Nifty makes Bottom from Top in 11-13 months) from Top made in Jan-2020 will complete In Sep-2021, 20-year cycle from Low made in Sep-200...

VIX Analysis

The daily VIX chart shows the formation of Doji candles at the bottom and reversal. The daily RSI crossed the previous resistance level of 40. The MACD signal gave bullish crossover suggesting bullish move in VIX. So the daily chart shows the possibility of VIX moving towards 28 levels in the coming days. The weekly chart shows the formation of wedge and reversal from the bottom. VIX may move towards the upper wedge line @ 29-30. So VIX suggesting the bearish mood of the market and hence the high possibility of fall in Nifty-50 and Banknifty in the coming days/weeks. VIX Gann Box: The daily Gann Box shows a reversal from the mid-zone of time factor points. The next time factor date is Jul-21. So will VIX continue to move high till Jul-21 or it will reverse from angle point? Wait and watch. Using VIX to spot Intraday Reversal on Indices: VIX is a very useful indicator to spot reversal during day trade. If the price of an index moves up and @ resistance zone watch values of VIX. If VIX s...

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