BankNifty Update for Jun-17, 2020

Today's move was very volatile. Banknifty opened the Huge gap up, almost 600 points, and made top @ 20638. But could not sustain and fall 1000 points making low @ 19507. It made Double Bottom Pattern on the daily chart and 19500 is a good support zone as Daily MAs are providing support.

The daily chart shows bullish MA crossover on Jun-1 (30 EMA-50 MA, which works well for Banknifty Daily time frame). Now Banknifty again came to MAs (what is called Mean Reversion)

It looks like a wave is completed at today's low that started from the top of 21800 levels. I expect a good upmove in the next few days provided support of 19500 remains intact. Weekly opening @ 20457 i.e. @ Banknifty Gann Degree Number zone - 20400 and Double Bottom Pattern, suggests bullish move. Targets are 21100/21800/22500/23300.

The Weekly MACD gave bullish crossover last week. The weekly chart shows the possibility of Banknifty moving to 22800 where 300-EMA resistance lies and 23700 where 30-EMA lies.

If you observe, in the past 300 EMA played very important support on the Banknifty Weekly chart. Now it may act as strong resistance.

The hourly chart shows a bullish MACD crossover. Also, observe strong bullish divergence in MACD histogram plotted as a line.

So Banknifty looks bullish on all time frames.

Gann Box:

Weekly Gann Box shows we are at the time cycle week. So a directional move is likely in the coming weeks.

India VIX:

Vix Daily Gann Box showing it facing resistance @ major angle. So Vix cools off likely.

F & O Data:

The future OI decreased by 9%, the possibility of short covering. But spot to future discount increased to 42 from 1, which is a bearish signal.

Trade Plan: Swing Trade

Above 20400 targets are 21100/21800/22500/23300

Below 19700 targets are 19000/18300/17600

I have strong Bullish Bias

Comments

VIX Analysis

The daily VIX chart shows the formation of Doji candles at the bottom and reversal. The daily RSI crossed the previous resistance level of 40. The MACD signal gave bullish crossover suggesting bullish move in VIX. So the daily chart shows the possibility of VIX moving towards 28 levels in the coming days. The weekly chart shows the formation of wedge and reversal from the bottom. VIX may move towards the upper wedge line @ 29-30. So VIX suggesting the bearish mood of the market and hence the high possibility of fall in Nifty-50 and Banknifty in the coming days/weeks. VIX Gann Box: The daily Gann Box shows a reversal from the mid-zone of time factor points. The next time factor date is Jul-21. So will VIX continue to move high till Jul-21 or it will reverse from angle point? Wait and watch. Using VIX to spot Intraday Reversal on Indices: VIX is a very useful indicator to spot reversal during day trade. If the price of an index moves up and @ resistance zone watch values of VIX. If VIX s...

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BankNifty Update For Jul-09,2020 - Weekly Expiry

Banknifty opened Gap up @ 22700 and then achieved all our bullish targets of 23900/23000. But the upmove was very choppy and looked like terminating pattern and was not easy to trade. So I did not take a trade on the upside. My observation was Banknifty good up (250-300 points) while Nifty was not at all moving up and was just 10-15 points up and VIX was increasing. That was a signal that there is a high probability of reversal. (I twitted this around 12.30 pm). Banknifty continued its upmove and VIX was not falling, so I was sure that reversal is on the card from the strong resistance zone of 23900-23000/50. In yesterday's post, I mentioned about daily RSI @ resistance. That was another reason I was expecting a high probability of fall after it moved higher levels to come to at least yesterday's close levels or below. I got down-trade from almost 23000 to 22700 (got out earlier as it was intraday and not much time left though I was expecting at least 22600. It gave a much lowe...

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