MoneyNaad

Bank Nifty opened little gap down. Today's low was 17829 (exactly equal to yesterday's low). It was double bottom and Index bounced back. Below is 15 min chart: So wave "a" of 4-(B) completed at 17829 and wave "b"  probably completed or near completion. Post completion of wave "b", wave "c" will come down and I expect it sharper one! Wave 4-(B) is looks like flat correction where wave a = wave b. target for wave "c" (4-(B)) will be 17768(1.236% of "a")/17735(1.382% of "a").

Bank Nifty opened mild gap Up and corrected and moved up again. It erased all the gains of the day in last 90 min of the day! Below shown is 15 min chart: Wave 4-(A) is completed at 18056. Wave v of 4-(A) terminated in ED and hence sharp fall witnessed there after. 5 min chart showing ED: Wave 4-(B) is in progress. Tomorrow being Monthly Expiry, we may see lot of volatile movement within a range.

Bank Nifty bounced back from 17600 level(3 digit Gann number). This is hourly chart. If wave 3 is completed at 17609, then wave 4 will move towards 18200/18300 level. It looks triangular pattern formation (ED/Complex correction) possibility is likely. On Dec 25 post I wrote " If RSI brakes 44 level and move up then we can look for reversal or bigger correction. If hourly RSI breaks 25, we can expect sharper down move. " Today on Hourly chart RSI broke 44 level and then Index zoomed sharply.  Let us take a look at 15 min chart:  It seems wave i & ii of wave 4-(A) upside completed. wave iii(i) and iii(ii) also completed and wave iii(iii) is in progress.   Again 1 SD line of Inside Pitchfork acted as strong support and Index bounced back. Index now may quickly go to median(central) line.

Bank Nifty moved down as expected. Hourly chart shows Index bounced back from RSI 25 level as I mentioned in yesterday's post that hourly RSI 25 level is providing good support. Target of 17600 is almost done (Today's low was 17607). Index moved out of hourly channel(Brown) and also faced resistance at lower line of channel. This opens possibility of further down move. 17600 is 3 digit Gann number. Breaking 17600 will take Index towards 17300/16900 levels. Inside Pitchfork's 1 SD line provided support today. Index bounced from same level after RBI low on Dec 7. If this is broken then sharper move on downside can be seen towards 17000/16900.

Adani Enterprises   Wave C terminated in ED and stock moved out of channel. Below 70 it would quickly reach to 66.50 where ED started.   Post ED on Daily time Frame (shown by blue nos 1-5), wave i-ii completed where ii was an irregular correction. Post that price moved out of channel and retraced back to channel. Below 103 stock will move quickly to 90/86 level.

In the last trading session Bank Nifty reached low of 17819. Looks it is in corrective wave of last impulse. Further down move in card. Let us take a look at Bank nifty in various time frame. Monthly chart is showing possibility of further down move in coming months. The index reversed from Top of bollinger band(BB). Bollinger bands are flat and possibility of range-bound movement within top and bottom bands is likely. So possibility of further down move in coming months very likely. In Weekly chart, RSI reversed from 50 level generating a SELL signal 2 weeks ago. Bollinger bands started to expand. The possibility of 17600/17000 this week can not be ruled out. In Daily chart, Index just moved on downside after trading within a range (shown by horizontal channel) for 20 trading days. The breaking of channel is giving target of 17500 level. RSI reversed from 50 level generating SELL signal on Dec 9. We can expect down move till RSI reaches 30 or below. Also BB were contract

Infosys: Ending Diagonal completed in corrective wave (C) and prices started moving down sharply today. Expect next few days to move prices to 900 level quickly. Biocon: Post ED prices moved sharply in Oct in wave A and now wave B is in progress. Wave (C) of B is likely to make ED (yet to confirm, but pattern looks quite possible). Post completion of wave B, prices will move sharply in wave C to levels of 650/600.

As expected Bank Nifty moved down after complex correction and achieved target of 17844 (61.8% of 3-a). Low made today was 17839. The wave 3 is looks like terminating in Ending Diagonal. Ending Diagonal looks completed and wave 4 of Bigger ED is started. In that case we should see index moving sharply to 18300/18400 levels. Inside Pitchfork ( bigger time frame) 1 SD line provided support today. We did saw New Low on Dec 21/22 and in my opinion this low should remain protected for coming few months.

Today Bank Nifty opened minor Gap Up. I was expecting Gap Down (I mentioned in yesterday's post), but correction that I thought is completed continued as complex pattern as shown in below 15 min chart. Correction looks completed as index moved below channel line connecting (b)-(d) and also come back near channel line as normally happens with these patterns. Today's correction completion looks like wave b of wave 3's a-b-c pattern. There is alteration in wave count to what I posted in yesterday's chart. Wave a is started at 18532 and completed at 18009. Wave b completed at 18167 today. Wave c down is in progress. Expect Gap Down Tomorrow, as that is personality of wave c (wave c of 1 & 2 were very sharp).  Target for wave c (Wave 3) Based on Wave a → 18532-18009 = 523                                                     Target 61.8% of wave a    = 323   →    17844 100% of wave a     = 523   →    17644 123.6% of wave a  = 646   →    17

Today Bank Nifty did show some movement on downside.  Wave c of 3 is in progress. The closing structure of candlesticks show that tomorrow Bank Nifty likely to open with Gap Down. Target for wave 3 is in the range of 17700/17600. Bank Nifty took support at 0.5 Standard Deviation line of Inside Pitchfork.  Would we see a New Low on Dec 21?

Bank Nifty: No change in view. It is now ripe for BIG Move, probably on down side. Days to watch Dec 20-21. It formed "Doji" candlestick pattern in the middle of the range movement. It is sign of a indecisiveness! Asian Paints: Prices moved below 890, that is confirmation of completion of wave b of post ED a-b-c move. So wave c should achieve its target below 800(800/720).

I have posted following weekly chart of Bank Nifty in my Dec 15 post. This chart shows similarity in patterns. The pattern started in Aug 2013 and completed in Oct 2016 as shown below: This is "Extracting Triangle Pattern" as per Advanced Elliott Wave (Neo Wave). Ongoing pattern looks similar to Extracting Triangle Pattern and as per this pattern wave D seems to be in progress. After completion of wave D, index will move towards upward channel line(RED) in wave E. Once the pattern gets completed, we should expect index to go below wave D. I am just aware about Neo wave patterns but do not have knowledge about its calculations/counts. In Extracting Triangle pattern, each successive wave in the direction of trend contracts while corrective waves expand (wave A< wave C < wave E, wave D > wave B) It looks similar to Head & Shoulder pattern So possibility of Down move is quite high post Jan 2017.

Asian Paints: ED completed at 1227 and then prices fall sharply in wave "a" of bigger wave A to 869. Post that wave "b" is look like completed at 975 ( Confirmation only when price crosses 890). If wave "c" is started then we may see prices reaching sharply to 800/720 in 2 weeks' time. Posted below weekly chart of Asian Paint: Indusind Bank: ED completed at 1236 and then prices fall sharply in wave "a" of bigger wave A to 1036. Post that wave "b" is look like completed at 1117 ( Confirmation only when price crosses 1040). If wave "c" is started then we may see prices reaching sharply to 970 in 2 weeks' time. Posted below weekly chart of Indusind Bank:   Identifying ED can provide excellent opportunity to trade in options and make quick returns!

On Dec 16, Bank Nifty opened small Gap Up and immediately came down. My understanding that wave c of possible correction will move up was not correct. Rather now there seems to be more clarity on pattern. What I assumed, completion of ED was not right. I was also surprised by not seeing expected move expected post completion of ED. The continuous fall and immediate recovery normally personality of waves in triangles and I thought of formation of ED on bigger time frame and what I thought of completion of ED is a part of ED. It seems to be likely possibility now. The ED probably started from 1 9130 , where 4th wave of wave coming from 20300 is completed. The wave 1 is completed at RBI low at 17953. Wave 2 is completed at 18532. Wave 3 is in progress. I mention in the weekly post on Dec 12 "13 weeks from Sep 22, is week starting Dec 19 that also contains Dec 21 i.e. Solstice date. Hence I consider this week as very important for markets and also for Bank

All major events are over and market is not going anywhere. For last 3 weeks Bank Nifty is trading between 18600 and 18150 with 18500 as strong resistance and 18300 as strong support. Prices below support or above resistance hardly sustain.  Today index opened Gap down reacting to Fed Rate cut and Hawkish Tone about future numbers of rate cuts in 2017. Sharply recovered, that become common pattern now a days to react negatively to adverse news and then recover sharply. Wave b of upside correction is completed at 18143 (Exactly at Trump Low). Index recovered sharply and "a/i" of wave c on upside completed at 18 526 and wave "b/ii" is in progress, that is expected complete nearby 18300 level, that is acting as strong support. Post completion of wave"b/ii", wave "c/iii" of wave c on upside can reach 18800/18950 if it can take out resistance at 19700 level ( we saw index coming down 2 times after it crossed 18700 to 18200 level). Either

Bank Nifty behaved exactly as I expected today, but took much more time to complete minor wave "c" of b. Yesterday I mentioned " Minor " c " wave may get complete tomorrow morning (probably with gap down) around 18300 level. And then we may see wave c of complex correction on upside. " The market is not moving much as it is waiting to get over uncertainty of Fed rate and Fed commentary on future outlook. If wave b is completed at 18325, then tomorrow Bank Nifty will move upside in wave c and we may have GAP UP, as that is the personality of wave c(Even if it is in wedge/triangle). Index closed above support of 18300, hence Gap Up possibility! The impact of Fed decision will be already clear in the morning and market will react to it in opening itself. If market moves down then we may see different pattern to emerge. If 18300/18280 is broken, we may see 18150/18000. Tomorrow is weekly expiry for Bank Nifty. But I do not expect it to be vo

The Bank Nifty opened small gap down and fall further to Support level of 18300. Yesterday I mentioned that b wave might have completed at 18366. But today's move showing possibility of different pattern. Minor wave " a " of b is completed at 18492. It looks like minor wave " b " of b is completed toady at 18491 near strong resistance level of 18490 and came down in minor wave " c ". Minor " c " wave may get complete tomorrow morning (probably with gap down) around 18300 level. And then we may see wave c of complex correction on upside. Target for wave c is 18950/19150. OR Wave b   is completed at 18334, and wave c is already started. I see less possibility of this as index reversed from 18490 and closed below it. When price close below resistance or support chances of gap down is high and vice versa. If wave c is not started then there may be very good trading opportunity on upside tomorrow. NB: It will be interestin

Post ED, we normally see wave in the form of A-B-C pattern. The index moved back to channel line, but enter inside channel. Normally it would not go so below channel line. Normally it is part of wave "a" of A that goes back to channel level, but this time it is wave "b" of A that enter channel and hence probably went much below channel line.  Wave "b" of A is a-b-c pattern with flat b. It seems "b" of B is completed at 18366 and wave "c" of A is started. Target for wave "c" is : % of a Target - c 50% 391.50 18757.50 61.80% 483.89 18849.89 76.40% 598.21 18964.21 78.60% 615.44 18981.44 100.00% 783.00 19149.00 Resistance are at 18816/18930/19150. Let us analyze possible move post ED. I have posted below chart of move after ED completion on Oct 4, 2016. The move is on downside. The analysis