BEL Analysis - Apr 17 to Apr 30

BEL formed Doji on the Monthly chart in Mar. The monthly chart shows RSI is also in support zone. MACD momentum is slowing in the down move.

In the Weekly chart, we can clearly see that for the last few weeks all candles have long wick on the downside and most of them are Doji candles, suggesting bullishness. All weekly candles also facing resistance at the upper trendline. So breaking and closing above this trendline on the weekly chart will be a signal bullish move.

Daily chart showing retracement of the up move from 56 to 76.75. Stock is consolidating in the range of 65-73. For the last few days, volumes are very low and the candles are mostly red.

Today volume picked up though the green candle is not Bullish (rather Doji one). But if we see an hourly chart, we see a big hourly bullish candle with good volume and following red/retracement candles with low volume. Volume delivery % is high today (67.19%).

So we can expect a good up move in the coming days.

Resistance is at 79-80 and strong resistance @86-88.

Gann Angles

In the above Monthly, the stock does not sustain below the pink angle fan. Stock exactly bounced from this angle and formed Bullish Doji candle.

Gann Angle Resistances @ 76/79/81/86/88 Supports @ 68-69 followed by 66.

Future OI analysis

Long positions were built between Mar 23-25 in the price range 56-63. These positions are not yet squared off.

Option Chain Analysis

Option chain activity is no that great. On Apr-8, there was good option writing in 50, 60 and 65 PE. Also huge writing is seen in 80 & 90 CE on Mar 27-31.

Long positions are added in 75 CE on Apr-8 and in 100 CE on Apr-3 and Apr-13. So squaring off positions in 80/90 CE will confirm the bullish signal.

Comments

VIX Analysis

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BankNifty Update For Jul-09,2020 - Weekly Expiry

Banknifty opened Gap up @ 22700 and then achieved all our bullish targets of 23900/23000. But the upmove was very choppy and looked like terminating pattern and was not easy to trade. So I did not take a trade on the upside. My observation was Banknifty good up (250-300 points) while Nifty was not at all moving up and was just 10-15 points up and VIX was increasing. That was a signal that there is a high probability of reversal. (I twitted this around 12.30 pm). Banknifty continued its upmove and VIX was not falling, so I was sure that reversal is on the card from the strong resistance zone of 23900-23000/50. In yesterday's post, I mentioned about daily RSI @ resistance. That was another reason I was expecting a high probability of fall after it moved higher levels to come to at least yesterday's close levels or below. I got down-trade from almost 23000 to 22700 (got out earlier as it was intraday and not much time left though I was expecting at least 22600. It gave a much lowe...

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