BEL Analysis - Apr 17 to Apr 30

BEL formed Doji on the Monthly chart in Mar. The monthly chart shows RSI is also in support zone. MACD momentum is slowing in the down move.

In the Weekly chart, we can clearly see that for the last few weeks all candles have long wick on the downside and most of them are Doji candles, suggesting bullishness. All weekly candles also facing resistance at the upper trendline. So breaking and closing above this trendline on the weekly chart will be a signal bullish move.

Daily chart showing retracement of the up move from 56 to 76.75. Stock is consolidating in the range of 65-73. For the last few days, volumes are very low and the candles are mostly red.

Today volume picked up though the green candle is not Bullish (rather Doji one). But if we see an hourly chart, we see a big hourly bullish candle with good volume and following red/retracement candles with low volume. Volume delivery % is high today (67.19%).

So we can expect a good up move in the coming days.

Resistance is at 79-80 and strong resistance @86-88.

Gann Angles

In the above Monthly, the stock does not sustain below the pink angle fan. Stock exactly bounced from this angle and formed Bullish Doji candle.

Gann Angle Resistances @ 76/79/81/86/88 Supports @ 68-69 followed by 66.

Future OI analysis

Long positions were built between Mar 23-25 in the price range 56-63. These positions are not yet squared off.

Option Chain Analysis

Option chain activity is no that great. On Apr-8, there was good option writing in 50, 60 and 65 PE. Also huge writing is seen in 80 & 90 CE on Mar 27-31.

Long positions are added in 75 CE on Apr-8 and in 100 CE on Apr-3 and Apr-13. So squaring off positions in 80/90 CE will confirm the bullish signal.

Comments

DAX analysis for a client

DAX Index Analysis For upto Feb 29, 2020 : Daily chart shows prices are at Strong resistance zone at upper trend line (red color). On Friday (Feb 14, 2020) it formed a Doji candle that is a sign of reversal as it formed at top and at resistance zone. So correction or reversal from this level is very likely. If prices cross above 13950 and sustains above then Breakout on upside is possible. But this looks very unlikely for at least few days as RSI indicator is also at resistance. At present it is in no trade zone. Best scenario is to wait for price to break 13600. Trade opportunities: Long Trade: Above 13950 for target of 14300. Short Trade: Below 13600 for target of 13450/13400 and below 13400 for target of 13100/13000 DAX Analysis for Swing Trade on Weekly Charts: Weekly chart shows price is at multiple channels and trend lines resistance. Trade opportunities: For few weeks or months holding Long Trade: Above 13950 for target of 14300/14800 and brea

Bullish Bets for coming week (Apr 13-17)

I have summarised my analysis in the following table. These are bullish stocks. Please do your own analysis and these are not recommendations but only for learning purposes Stock CMP Tgt 1 Tgt 2 Tgt 3 ITC 185.25 203 210 VEDL 76.8 92 96 NCC 20.15 23 26 28 RBL 120.85 134 140 SUNTV 338.3 360 365 390 CANBK 91.5 111 118 121 SBIN 187.75 194 202 211 RECLTD 89 101 106 INDIGO 1041.95 1100 1140 1160 HINDPETRO 207.85 218 223 227 Hindalco 107.55 113 127 134 CHOLAFIN 171.75 185 204 225 BHARATFORG 245.55 277 288 299 SRTRANSFIN 675.95 730 785 840 .

Bank Nifty Bigger Time Frame Analysis

I have posted following weekly chart of Bank Nifty in my Dec 15 post. This chart shows similarity in patterns. The pattern started in Aug 2013 and completed in Oct 2016 as shown below: This is "Extracting Triangle Pattern" as per Advanced Elliott Wave (Neo Wave). Ongoing pattern looks similar to Extracting Triangle Pattern and as per this pattern wave D seems to be in progress. After completion of wave D, index will move towards upward channel line(RED) in wave E. Once the pattern gets completed, we should expect index to go below wave D. I am just aware about Neo wave patterns but do not have knowledge about its calculations/counts. In Extracting Triangle pattern, each successive wave in the direction of trend contracts while corrective waves expand (wave A< wave C < wave E, wave D > wave B) It looks similar to Head & Shoulder pattern So possibility of Down move is quite high post Jan 2017.

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