MoneyNaad

Yesterday's post I mentioned, that for upmove to continue Banknifty will have to sustain above 19000. It did hold 19000 and done target of 19300 and move more up towards the 50-MA zone near 19500 (Today's top was 19455). It came down towards 19000 but hold this level and eventually closed @19170.   So the probability of upmove towards next Gann Number19700 and Banknifty Gann Degree Number 20400 is quite high. Any move below 19000 can take it towards 18300 and maybe 17600. The Daily chart shows the price at the resistance zone of multiple MAs (50-MA/30-EMA/20-MA). Move above 19500 may take it to 20400/ 21100 (Upper end of Bollinger Band). Daily RSI @ 50 zones (50.39), the possibility of a good move (either side) is high. The hourly chart shows price took support @ channel upper line which is also 19000 Gann Number support zone.  FNO Data: Yesterday there was high discount in Banknifty May expiry futures to spot price, but Banknifty still closed much higher than yesterday's c

Today Banknifty gave Big upmove. So what is in store for tomorrow? The Daily chart shows the resistance of 20-MA/30-EMA in the zone of 19000-19300.  The Hourly chart shows the price @ channel resistance. We may see resistance at next Gann Number 19000. For upmove, prices need to sustain above 19000. Prices may move in the 19000-18300 range. Break of 18300 may start down move. FNO Data: Banknifty futures are at discount to spot (premium change from 5 to  -47.5) and June futures also @ discount to spot (premium change from 2 to -80). So the probability of down moves tomorrow.

I could not upload posts yesterday on Banknifty update as unable to upload charts due to internet issues. So I am posting yesterday's charts, just to analyze today's upmove. I will just analyze how Gann Angles, RSI, and futures data helped to capture today's move. Following observations on various charts: Yesterday's low was an exact reversal from Weekly 45-degree (1/1), Gann Angle On the Daily chart, RSI made Bullish "W" pattern On the Hourly chart Bullish MA ( I use 30-EMA/40-MA) crossover after Bearish crossover on May 5 Futures Data  Huge reduction in OI (short covering of positions added on May 22) Future to spot premium changed from -63 to +5 This information created a Bullish view on Banknifty. The signal for Big Move Today: Exact opening on Banknifty Gann Degree Number 17600 (opening was @ 17603). This signaled BIG Move(700-800). My target because of this opening is 18300 i.e. next Gann Number. It actually moved too far from even 18300 (not expected).

The following chart shows various time cycles on Nifty. What Happened? In 2019, Gann 90 year cycle completed. This cycle comes from 1839 depression followed by 1929 depression. In Feb-2020, 20-year cycle completed from Feb 2000 Top In Jan-2020, 144-month cycle completed from Top made in Jan-2008 before the 2008 financial crisis In Dec-2019, 3-year cycle completed from Low made in Dec-2016 post Demonetisation So we saw a big fall as major cycles came together. What next for Nifty? In Oct-2020, 144-month cycle from Low made in Oct-2008 during the 2008 financial crisis, will complete In Nov-2020, 10-year cycle from Top made in Nov-2010 will complete In Dec-2020, 288-month cycle from Low made in Dec-1996 will complete In Feb-2020, 60-month cycle from Low made in Feb-2016 will complete In Feb-2020, 13-month cycle (it is observed Nifty makes Bottom from Top in 11-13 months) from Top made in Jan-2020 will complete In Sep-2021, 20-year cycle from Low made in Sep-2001 wi

On May 22. Banknifty opened Gap Down @ 17554 and went down to 17424 and then sharply move up making top @ 17952. But could not sustain and fall sharply in the next hour making low @ 17105. After making low it was just rangebound within 17100 and 17350, closing day @ 17278.90. Below is the Banknifty Weekly Angle chart. The prices did bounce from 45 degrees (1/1) angle zone but the bounce is not much and price closed near angle. That's a bearish signal. The daily chart is still showing consolidation as MACD/RSI are flat. It did brake 17143 low made on Apr-3, but hold that level on closing basis. So brake of 17150 levels could start downfall or else consolidation may continue. On the hourly chart price broke the neckline of H&S pattern and again enter the neckline zone and reversed. Now we are seeing resistance at the channel. So It indicates further down move possibilities. F&O Data: I mentioned in the last post "The Banknifty Jun & Jul expiry fut

Bharti Airtel performed very well in the last 2 months. How this move was captured on Gann Angles and RSI set up is what this post is all about. Here I am posting the 3M chart of Bharti Airtel. RSI @ 3 months closing candle of Mar 2020 took support @ 60 zones. This was the starting point for a possible bullish move in the next 3 months. So we will evaluate on a lower time frame i.e. monthly charts. At the end of Mar, Monthly RSI was taking support @ 60 zones (actual value @ 58.67). So this reinforces 3M chart bullishness. Gann Angles: On Monthly Gann Angles Mar candle shows a sharp reversal from 45 degrees (1/1) angle, strong confirmation of bullishness. So based on 3M and M-RSI and Monthly Gann Angles, we should take a bullish view and then look for an opportunity to enter on a weekly/daily time frame. This is just a case study on how Gann Angles and RSI gives good trade set up. I found this opportunity in the middle of Apr, kept watch on it. I did not took trade in

As expected Banknifty moved up and made high of 18200. It then reversed and made low at 17658. So this rangebound move between Gann Numbers 18300-17600 is continued. Today's candle on the Daily chart is a bearish candle. Tomorrow will be crucial to watch, how Banknifty gives weekly close. Next week is truncated week as Monday is a holiday, so we have extended weekend and only 3 days to Monthly expiry in the next week. The Banknifty Jun & Jul expiry futures are at a high discount to spot price (90 and 87). Yesterday Jun expiry future was just at 3 point discount to spot. Also OI spurt data shows an increase in Banknifty OI at 43%. This signals the possibility of shorts built-up in Banknifty.

As expected Banknifty moved today in range with Bullish bias. The price structure shows the possibility of further upmove towards the 18300-18500 zone. Tomorrow is weekly expiry and the possibility of rangebound move between Gann Numbers 18300-17600 may continue to eat options premium.

Banknifty Monthly Chart Analysis Banknifty Monthly chart is posted here. If we take a look at 14 period-RSI, it broke 40 levels the first time after Sep-2001. In the month of Apr, RSI took resistance at 40 levels and we saw a reversal in May. Also if we observe MACD, it went below the "0" level first time after Nov-2008. If we take look at histogram bars they show very strong momentum than all previous falls. So the probability of it going much lower than Mar low is quite high. May open and top (20517/20530) near Banknifty Gann Degree Number of 20400, right now near next Gann Degree No of 17600, and the probable target is 15000 in the next few weeks near Gann Degree Number of 15100.

In yesterday's post, I mentioned that Banknifty may remain rangebound in 18000--17200. Today it opened Gap up @ 18037, immediately come down to 17600 levels, our Gann No and again gave good up-move making day high @ 18175 and then again back to 17600, broke it, made low of 17390. It eventually closed @ 17486. So it behaved exactly in the range as we expected, giving good opportunities for trading. On the daily chart, MACD  is clearly showing the breakdown. In this entire retracement upmove, MACD did not cross the "0" level and now gave bearish crossover. Similarly, RSI was rangebound in the 40-50 zone during retracement move. Now it also broke 40 levels. Breaking 17200 levels will give us a target of 15000 levels in the coming weeks, near our next important Gann Number for Banknifty, 15100. In the Month of May, Banknifty opened near Gann Number 20400, achieved the next major Gann Number level 17600. So now the next target as per this system is 15100. So let's wai

Banknifty broke Gann No 18300 and moved down quickly to next Gann No 17600, made low at 17514, and then was rangebound throughout the day. For Banknifty 17500-17200 is a good support zone and it may move in the range of 18000-17200 for this week. If it breaks 17140 (low made on Apr-3 was 17143), then it may sharply move down and may even break the previous low of 16116. The hourly chart shows a possible Head & Shoulder (H&S) pattern and brake of the neckline. Gann Angles: Banknifty opened at Daily 45 degree(1/1) angle and gave an excellent move reaching almost the next angle fan 2/1. This is the daily angle with a different scale. See how it nicely took support at 45 degree (1/1) angle.

Bank nifty after opening gap up after stimulus declaration is showing weakness and closing lower every day thereafter. Tomorrow will be an interesting day to watch as all announcement about stimulus package is over.  If it breaks 18300 levels then a strong down move may start taking it to the previous low and may even break that in the coming month. Otherwise, it may again consolidate in the range of 18300-19700.

I am posting the Monthly chart of Nifty. Please observe the Time factor, RSI behavior.

Introduction to Gann Degree Numbers If we study any chart of stock/index or any other asset class that is traded on stock exchanges, we will find that it moves from one specific number to another specific number. We can call those numbers as supports and resistances. Is there is any relation between these numbers or it is just a random move? If we could find a relation between these numbers then we can predict from a particular value where that asset is going to move. Gann Degree Numbers or Degree Gann Numbers (DGN) is exactly a concept that assigns a particular set of numbers to a particular asset(stock/index/commodity/currency). So where we will get these Gann Degree Numbers? Gann Degree Numbers - Where to Find them? W. D. Gann talked about the concept of Square of Nine. We get our Degree Gann Numbers from this table.  There are lines passing through midpoint (shown in yellow color) that identifies numbers falling on particular degrees.  So we have 8 major deg

The Banknifty is moving up and down in range (mostly Gann Nos). After making high on the stimulus package, Banknifty is moved down continuously making low near Gann No 19000 today. It looks this range-bound move will continue till FM's daily conferences continue. So the possibility of 21600- 22500 based on Fib-projection still continues, unless we break 18300 levels. .

Banknifty opened the gap down and continued down move till Gann No 18300(18307). Then consolidated in the range of 18500-18300, making low at 18287. It upheld support of Gann no 18300 and made good up-move towards Gann No 19000 from where it came to 18300. So this Gann No game is on. Actually, Banknifty is following Gann No series very well. The "Ending Diagonal" pattern I thought wave "C" of A-B-C correction made, did not look so and today's up-move and now up-move expected due to Economic Package changes the view of the pattern. The possibility of whole corrective turning out to be a Diametric pattern (a concept from Neo Wave - Advance Elliott Wave - I have no expertise in it, but aware of such patterns) of the "Bow Tie" shape looks more probable. It is a 7-leg pattern wave a-to-g and where wave 'a' will be equal with wave 'g' in time and price. So I projected up-move in wave g equal to wave a (5346 points). So let's see

Banknifty opened gap up and again reversed from Banknifty major Gann No 19700 and gave excellent move towards another major Gann No 19000, making low of 18900.90 and closed @ 18950, below Gann No 19000. It also broke the previous pivot low made on May 6 @ 18941. From low of Mar 23, Banknifty moved in A-B-C corrective wave, making top @ 21967. In this A-B-C correction wave "C' formed the "Ending Diagonal"(ED) pattern which is a 5-wave corrective pattern where all 5-waves internally make a-b-c pattern. The ED of wave C took 16 trading days to complete. it started on Apr-3(@17143.20) and completed on Apr-30(@ 21967). As per basic rules, a complete retracement of ED should take a half time it made to complete. So we should see 17200 levels in 8-9 trading sessions from the top of Apr-30. So, May-13 or May-14 should achieve 17200 levels. The down wave started after completion of A-B-C correction @ 21967 and wave 1 is completed @ 18941. It seems wave 2 completed

The whole FMCG sector stocks are falling one by one, first, it was Hindunilvr then Dabur (I have posted my analysis on these 2 stocks) and now Britannia looks weak. CMP - 2994.65 / Target 2810-2800 followed by 2640 / 2620.

Banknifty opened gap up and broke 19800 levels resistance, face resistance @ trend line, made top @ 19969.60 but could not sustain and moved down. It closed @ 19352.90. It also closed below Gann No 19700 for the 4th consecutive trading session. The whole structure still remains weak until it breaks above 20100. The hourly chart shows MACD Histogram line (blue) faced resistance at the upper end of the channel and reversed (shown by Ellipse shape). Prices are still moving in the range of 19300-19800. We will have to wait & watch still we see a strong breakout on either side for a good swing trade.

Today Banknifty behaved how it behaves on the normal weekly expiry, where option writers control the moves. It made the top of 19757 and low of 19332. So 19800 levels are acting as stiff resistance while 19300 is good support. It is closing below important Banknifty gann no of 19700 for the last 3 days. The hourly chart shows that trendlines are still acting as strong resistance. I also plotted MACD Histogram in the form of a line (blue color line). It continuously showing a negative divergence. The daily chart formed a Doji candle. Similarly, the MACD Histogram line is showing negative divergence. But prices are still holding 18700 levels. Break of 18700 will confirm the start of down-move. So let's wait and watch.

Banknifty made low of 18941, so it holds 18700 levels. It bounced back to 19800 levels but faced stiff resistance @ 19800 throughout the day. Now it is looking very weak and any up-move may not sustain and once it breaks 18700 we may see a sharp fall. Daily chart showing a contraction of Bollinger bands. So we may see expansion very soon and most likely on the downside. Today, it faced resistance at Middle Bollinger band i.e. 20 MA  The hourly chart also shows price faced stiff resistance today at juncture multiple trend lines.

In the last post on Banknifty, I talked about 2 scenarios https://fnocafe.blogspot.com/2020/05/banknifty-analysis-for-week-starting.html Scenario 1: Banknifty continuously falls and breaks 18700 in the coming days then it will confirm the start of the down move and we can have targets of 17200 followed by 16200. I am considering this as Low probable scenario. Scenario 2: Banknifty holds 19500 levels and moves up as shown by blue lines. I see this as a highly probable case where coming days fall will complete the "d" wave of bigger wave "C" and again up-move will start to complete wave "e" to complete the Ending Diagonal pattern. Wave "e' may or may not go above wave "c" Banknifty broke 19500 but yet to break 18700. Until it holds 18700, the possibility of one leg of up-move is still holds that can take Banknifty to 20400-20500 level.

Intraday watchlist-  May 5 Hindalco / ITC / Bhartiartl / Coalindia / Cadilahc / Dabur

FMCG sector performed well even when overall markets were bleeding. But now stocks like Hindunilvr and Dabur are showing weakness. I already posted about Hindunilvr on Twitter handle on Apr 27 and we saw a good fall in it. Now Dabur looks ready for fall! Here is the Monthly chart of Dabur that looks weak. Following are my observations: An impulsive pattern probably completed at top of 525 and now the price may show a reversal. Monthly RSI is showing strong Bearish Divergence MACD (Histogram too) is also showing strong Bearish Divergence. Price reversed from the Monthly angle. Supports level are 450-445/ 430/ 420 . Breaking 420 we can see 390-380 . Resistances are 495/500/510

The month of May is normally considered a "Bearish" month and "Sell in May and Go Away" is a well-known adage in the investment world. Let's check which sectors are looking interesting this month and may be next month. Three sectors I  analysed here are Metal, Auto, and Pharma.  Bullish Sectors: Metal and Auto Bearish Sector: Pharma Metal Sector: Below is the Monthly chart of the metal sector.  It formed a Double Bottom pattern and reversed from the support level.  Monthly RSI is also showing reversal from support/oversold level of 30.  MACD is showing Bullish Divergence.  We may see good up-move in the coming months of May and June, especially from steel sector stocks. Keep a close watch on Jindalstel, JSWsteel, Tatasteel, and SAIL Gann Angle: Reversal from Weekly angle Auto Sector: Monthly chart observations: Price reversed from the support level and from Fibonacci retracement zone of 61.8% Monthly RSI reversed in