Bank Nifty for Week Starting Jan 23, 2017

I mentioned in Jan 19 EOD Update "

• It started showing weakness.
• Today Bank Nifty broke Middle BB on hourly chart that was providing strong support for Up move started from Jan 5. Also RSI level 59 is broken today that was acting strong support for Up move. It also broke lower line of Blue channel along which it was moving in sideways move from Jan 12. So possibility of down move is now high.
• If Index opens Gap Up and start falling sharply then it may quickly reach to 18800(assuming ED, it started at 18782) where even lower line of Brown channel is placed. "

So Bank Nifty fell sharply after Major Gap Down. The wave (C) indeed completed in ED though It was difficult to conclude wave v of ED completion and hence I thought of minor Gap up. But It completed at much below wave iii of ED. Bank Nifty did reach near target of 18783 where ED started (Low was 18793). So now small correction is due. Let us take a look at 15 min chart:

Bank Nifty either completed wave iii of minor wave "a" at 18793 or wave iii is still in progress but almost near completion. Post wave iii, Bank Nifty will correct upside to complete wave iv of minor wave "a". Wave iii started at 19128 and assuming it completed at 19793 (335 points), wave iv may retrace by 23.6%-38.2%. So wave iv target is in the range of 19872-18920. Post wave iv, Bank Nifty will fall again to 18600/18500 level.

Bank Nifty broke upward channel along which it moved from bottom of 17606. Hence, reversal is confirmed and we can expect down move towards 17600 level in coming weeks.

I mentioned in last week update that bank Nifty may face resistance at 19150/19200 zone as Middle BB line of weekly chart is placed around 19150. Though Bank Nifty able reach 19276 it reversed from there. On candlestick, it formed Gravestone Doji Pattern. It indicates possibility of reversal if trend is bullish.

Also if we take a look at similarity of chart pattern of wave started from Sep 7, 2016 Top with chart pattern of wave started from Jan 2015 Top, the possibility of Big Fall is very high. So Don't get surprised if by Feb end Bank Nifty reach 17000/16500 level.

In my Dec 19, 2017 post (link to which is given below) I posted following weekly chart

https://optiontradingcafe.blogspot.in/2016/12/bank-nifty-bigger-time-frame-analysis.html

Now if we take look at same chart updated to date as shown below, Bank Nifty did reach upper channel point (E) and started reversing. According to this pattern (Extracting Triangle - Advanced Elliott wave(Neo wave) pattern), bank Nifty should move towards lower line of channel and post breaking it, sharply fall.

So coming few weeks we may see Big Down move in Bank Nifty. So going short and avoiding going long on Bank Nifty is right strategy( Sell on rise/correction) for coming weeks.

Inside Pitchfork:

Bank Nifty Reversed from 0.5 SD upper line. Crossing median line, it may quickly move down to 0.5SD lower line this week(i.e. around 18000).

GANN Time Analysis:

Last weekly update I mentioned "Week starting Jan 16 is 17th  week from Top of 20265(made on 22 Sep, 2016-Equinox day). Also Jan 17th is 90th trading day from Top of 20576 (made on Sep 7,2016). So we may see some Big move this week and specially on/around Jan 17th." It seems that the top made on 18th Jan at 19276 may be a Mid Term Top and may be protected for next few months.