When Option Buying should be avoided?

In the last trading session Bank Nifty moved almost 150 point from day's low of 21410. But weekly call option prices hardly move much! What is the reason? Option prices depends mainly on factors such as price movement of underlying instrument, time left for expiry and volatility. Also move was not impulsive but slow up move taking almost whole day for move.

In yesterday's session, India VIX index, measure of market volatility fall sharply by almost 7% due to lack of any global event and not much surprise expected from Monetary policy of RBI due on Thursday. Hence, call option prices did not move even when instrument(stock/index) prices moved favorably.

It is better to stay away from option buying during such scenario. From above chart you can see option prices (21800CE) continuously moved up and down and trading is difficult in this case.Time factor was also against option pricing as next day was trading holiday!

Some profit can be made only if you buy At-The-Money(ATM) 21500CE or next Out-Of-The-Money(OTM) 21600CE option.

If you sell OTM (in this case put)options (required higher margin) you can make good money in such event as option prices will fall due to fall in volatility and time decay even if there is not much price movement. You can see the price fall is steep(21200PE), so easy to trade using trailing stop loss(TSL).

Comments

Bank Nifty for Week Starting Jan 16, 2017

Last week Bank Nifty made big up move of 650 points. High made is 18966. It looks like it is ready for further up move. On hourly chart Middle BB line(RED color) is providing support and Index may again move up towards upper line of Blue Channel. The Best trading strategy is now to go Long when Index is bouncing from Middle BB line and Exit when it is near upper line of Blue Channel. Hourly RSI shows Resistance at 85 level and Support at 59 level. So Blue channel along with RSI levels are good indicators for trade. It is not good idea to go short as Up Momentum is strong. If Index breaks Middle BB line then only short positions should be taken. If Bank Nifty breaks 18850/18800 then we may see it reach quickly to 18650/18600. Also it may break RSI support level of 59 for major correction. We may see Index moving along Upper BB line (Blue color) on Daily chart. Index may face resistance at 19150/19200 level. If it crosses 19200 it can reach to 19500/197000. Daily RSI is

Bank Nifty EOD Feb 7 Update!

Bank Nifty is in consolidation/correction mode. Today it moved in a very narrow range and it seems that it is under time correction before a BIG move. It is awaiting RBI monetary policy decision due on Feb 8 and bank Nifty may make Big move on Feb 9 in either direction depending on market's reaction to RBI decision. Bank Nifty 15 min chart shows wave a and wave b completed and wave c is in progress. It may take triangle pattern of correction as uncertainty of event outcome is playing out. It may correct to 20250/20030 levels.

Hindalco - On the Verge of Break-Down?

Hindalco Daily chart is posted below: Daily chart shows prices are facing resistance at Gann level 183 and now prices are near lower band of Bollinger Bands(BB) that are expanding. Hence, a big fall is expected in next 2-3 trading sessions with target of next Gann level 157. Daily RSI is also broke 50 level coming from upside overbought 70 level that signals further fall in coming days.

MoneyNaad

Search This Blog