MoneyNaad

Bank Nifty moved down to 19435 and corrected to 19624. Below is 15 min chart: Wave B is in progress and it looks like minor wave a (at 19445)and minor wave b (at 19624) are completed. Minor wave c of wave B is in progress. In the last 30 min Bank Nifty faced stiff resistance at 19590/19583 Gann nos and closed at 19515. There is very likely chance of major Gap Down as this is wave c and Bank Nifty closed below 19590. Wave B may take complex correction pattern due to high volatility on account Budget event. Daily chart show Doji candlestick pattern that signifies that market is not sure about direction. My observation is that when it forms 1-2 days after a top, Index has major Gap down on next day and go further down. Let us see whether that happens tomorrow! Tomorrow is Budget Day and we may see huge swings during Budget presentation! A close below 19000 may be bearish for Bank Nifty.

Bank Nifty completed Major Wave A at Friday's high of 19795. Wave B is in progress that should go to level of 19000. Hourly chart shows that Bank Nifty crossed lower line of channel along which it moved in minor wave c of wave A. It also closed below middle BB line on hourly chart. Hourly RSI topped out at 85 level from where it often reverses and MACD has given a negative crossover. Daily chart shows RSI reversed from overbought level of 72. Bank Nifty closed below Gann level of 19590(Gann 4 digit No) at 19585. Hence possibility of Gap down opening is high. If opens below 19471(Gann 5 digit No) from where it opened Gap up on Jan 27, then sharp fall can be expected. The target for minor wave a of wave B is in the range of 19200/19000. Inside Pitchfork: IP is showing that Bank Nifty facing resistance at upper 1 SD line. NB US and Europe markets are down by more than 1%(10.30 pm IST) due to Trump ban on Travel from selected Muslim countries.

Bank Nifty shows wild swing on budget day during presentation of Budget Speech by FM. High to low swing could be 500-800 points. How to take advantage of this wild moves?  One can buy call option and put option in equal lots just 300 points away from Bank Nifty Index level at 3.15-3.25 pm on Jan 31 . The option prices will be high due to increase in volatility index due to uncertainty of Budget outcome on Feb 1. On Feb 1 when Index moves wildly one can sell option that is in good profit (Expect 3 times of buy price). If you are lucky and alert, both put and call options can give 3 times value of buy price. So sell them when they are good profit and then stay away till Bank Nifty takes clear direction. Chances of losses are low as you can at least cover your capital as it is observed that Index wildly move during speech of FM. Do not enter into trade just before completion of speech as option prices will sharply drop once event is over due to fall in volatility.

For Last 2-3 weeks Bank Nifty shown very volatile moves. It moved up very fast from 18300 to 19250 level, corrected sharply to 18700 level and again sharply moved up to 19700. Let us analyze why it is moving in this manner! The down move from 20300 terminated in ED (ED started from 19150-19200 level). the wave 5 was very short and hence I was not confident whether it was really ED? But post moves and specially the speed at which minor wave b & c of Major wave A completed confirms the same. Also minor wave a terminated where ED started. I mentioned about this ED might have started at 19130 level(as waves are very complex and not easy to identify) in EOD Dec 16 update. https://optiontradingcafe.blogspot.in/2016/12/bank-nifty-endiang-diagonal-in-progress.html Here I am posting Post ED moves analysis link: https://optiontradingcafe.blogspot.in/2016/12/nifty-bank-post-ending-diagonal-move_12.html We normally see that time taken by minor wave b is much less than impul

Bank Nifty corrected in wave iv of minor wave "a" post ED. Wave iv is probably near completion and post completion of wave iv Bank Nifty will move down to complete wave v of minor wave "a". Wave iv is having flat a-b-c pattern where wave (a) = (b) (approx). Bank Nifty may open Gap up 18920/18950 to complete wave (c) of wave iv.  Target for wave v/minor wave "a" would be around 18600/18500 where it opened Gap Up on Jan 11.

I mentioned in Jan 19 EOD Update " It started showing weakness. Today Bank Nifty broke Middle BB on hourly chart that was providing strong support for Up move started from Jan 5. Also RSI level 59 is broken today that was acting strong support for Up move. It also broke lower line of Blue channel along which it was moving in sideways move from Jan 12. So possibility of down move is now high. If Index opens Gap Up and start falling sharply then it may quickly reach to 18800(assuming ED, it started at 18782) where even lower line of Brown channel is placed. " So Bank Nifty fell sharply after Major Gap Down. The wave (C) indeed completed in ED though It was difficult to conclude wave v of ED completion and hence I thought of minor Gap up. But It completed at much below wave iii of ED. Bank Nifty did reach near target of 18783 where ED started (Low was 18793). So now small correction is due. Let us take a look at 15 min chart: Bank Nifty either complete

Bank Nifty  moved in small range today! It started showing weakness. Low made today was 19045 and High was 19183. It closed at 19124, down 30 points from yesterday's close. Today Bank Nifty broke Middle BB on hourly chart that was providing strong support for Up move started from Jan 5. Also RSI level 59 is broken today that was acting strong support for Up move. It also broke lower line of Blue channel along which it was moving in sideways move from Jan 12. So possibility of down move is now high. Possibility of wave (C) terminating in ED is looking quite high. Tomorrow Index may open Gap Up to complete wave c of wave (v) of ED. If Index opens Gap Up and start falling sharply then it may quickly reach to 18800(assuming ED, it started at 18782) where even lower line of Brown channel is placed. The Bank Nifty retraced 61.8 % of down move from 20309 to 17606. So everything is pointing towards correction/reversal of Up move started from 17606.

Bank Nifty today crossed 19200 and made high of 19276 and sharply came down. Hourly chart shows possibility of completion of wave (C) post Up move from bottom of 17607. If wave (C) is completed at 19276, then we may see move towards 19000/18800. Bank Nifty is still holding support of Middle BB line as well as RSI 59 level on hourly chart though RSI is started showing divergence. Confirmation of down move if it brakes middle BB line and RSI 59 level decisively. Other possibility is wave v(Red color) of (C) forming ED as shown in 15 min chart: If it is forming ED then probably wave (iv) (blue color) is in progress and tomorrow wave (v) may complete.

Bank Nifty opened mild Gap Up but not above 19200 as expected by me. It reached 19202 level but did not sustained for even 10 min and corrected more than 200 points, recovered 100 points and finally closed at 19067. Daily and Weekly chart show confluence of channel resistance at 19200 level and Index could not breach it. Blue channel upper line that is parallel to lower line connecting several bottoms from Top of 20576 and Upper line of Brown channel along which Index moved from recent bottom of 17607 provided strong resistance together. Also weekly Middle BB line also providing resistance in that zone.   Index may now move towards lower line of Brown channel.  On hourly chart, Index is again bounced from Middle BB line(as well as hourly RSI closed above support level of 59 after breaching it). Break of Middle BB line will confirm down move towards lower channel line. For wave started at 19202, wave A or 1 is completed at18981and wave B or 2 is in progress. Post wav

Bank Nifty moved on expected line as discussed in Weekly update. It is taking support of Middle BB line (RED) on hourly chart as shown below: It bounced from Middle BB line and reached high of 19031. Expect Gap up opening tomorrow. If it opens above 19200 then we may see big up move towards 19400/19500. Gann levels 19360/19370 may offer strong resistance. Jan 17th is 90th trading day from Top of 20576(made on Sep 7, 2016). Hence, big move is on the card tomorrow on important GANN date.

Last week Bank Nifty made big up move of 650 points. High made is 18966. It looks like it is ready for further up move. On hourly chart Middle BB line(RED color) is providing support and Index may again move up towards upper line of  Blue Channel.  The Best trading strategy is now to go Long when Index is bouncing from Middle BB line and Exit when it is near upper line of Blue Channel. Hourly RSI shows Resistance at 85 level and Support at 59 level. So Blue channel along with RSI levels are good indicators for trade.  It is not good idea to go short as Up Momentum is strong. If Index breaks Middle BB line then only short positions should be taken. If Bank Nifty breaks 18850/18800 then we may see it reach quickly to 18650/18600. Also it may break RSI support level of 59 for major correction. We may see Index moving along Upper BB line (Blue color) on Daily chart. Index may face resistance at 19150/19200 level. If it crosses 19200 it can reach to 19500/197000. Daily RSI is

Bank Nifty opened Gap up and reached high of 18966. This is Daily chart of Bank Nifty. The Index is facing resistance at Upper line of Blue channel. The Index is out of upper BB. Normally prices do not remain out of BB and hence correction is very likely. Also Today's candle formed Doji. A doji candle at bottom or top of the trend is indicator of possible reversal of trend. A doji above Upper BB is indicator of strong possibility of reversal of trend or correction.   In 15 min chart, we can see index sharply corrected from 18966 to 18805. This may be minor wave a or i of corrective wave. It looks like wave b/ii is completed at 18926. Wave c/iii may be in progress and target for wave c/iii is 18700/18650.

Bank Nifty opened 100+ points Gap Up and moved up another almost 400 points to hit day's high of 18889. In last 2 days Index moved almost 600 points. Hourly RSI is in overbought zone(above 70). We may see correction up-to 18600 level (Upper channel line-shown in Brown color). The wave started from 17607 may take pattern of 5 wave complex triangle correction(ABCDE). Tomorrow being weekly expiry we may see some volatile movement. Inside Pitchfork: Inside Pitchfork is showing breakout. So further up move after some correction possible. Inside Pitchforks with different coordinates showing resistance at median line. So possibility of correction is high. If Index breaks out above median lines then further up move till 19200  is likely.

Bank Nifty is again moving in very narrow range. Hourly chart shows corrective wave (C)  is in progress and still can go up-to 18500/18550(Blue Channel Upper Line). Wave (C) looks like terminating in triangle pattern(probably ED). In that case we may see sharp down fall towards 18100/18000. If it brakes 18500/18550 then it can reach 18700. On Daily chart possibility of down move as 5th wave still looks valid as Up move from 17607 is taking corrective A-B-C pattern. Inside Pitchfork(IP): Index broke upper 0.5 SD line and may reach upper end of IP i.e. 1 SD line

Asian Paint: My analysis that wave (B) of bigger degree post ED completed was not correct. The wave is yet to complete and ED in wave C of (B) is still in progress. Wave(iv) of ED in progress/completed and price should move up to complete wave(v) of ED. That will complete wave(B) and then we may see big fall in wave(C).  Biocon:  The bigger degree wave (B) post ED is seems to be completed now. Minor wave B of (B) is Irregular correction. We should see a sharp fall in wave(C).

Bank Nifty moved within very narrow range today! It closed above 18250, hence up move possibility is still on the card. We may see 18500/18550 tomorrow. If 18250 is broken then, it may fall to 18100/18000 level.   Index faced resistance above 0.5 upper SD line on Inside Pitchfork. If it closes above 0.5 SD line then target of 18700 is possible.

Bank Nifty continued to move up and close above 18250 on weekly close. Now it may further move up to 18500/18550. 18500 if it crosses 18320/18325 is strong resistance zone and if it takes away that, next target will be 18700. Breaking below 18250 may again take down to 18000/17900.

Today bank Nifty opened Gap Up and continued to move up till 18164. We will take a look at Daily chart: Daily chart shows that Index is moving within channel shown in Blue color. Index reversed from Mid BB line and this zone is providing strong resistance to Index. Expect Index to move down towards lower line of channel unless it takes out 18250 level on daily closing basis. Hourly chart suggest completion of wave b and Index should move down in wave c of wave 5(As assumed by me). The possibility of Diamond shape pattern can not be ruled out. In that case, we should see a sharp down move.

Asian Paint: Corrective ABC wave is terminating in ED(Wave C). Stock will quickly fall to 880/850 levels in next few days. Bharat Forge: Complex correction completed. Target 890/870 in next few days. Biocon: Corrective wave completed from 880 to 960. Sharp fall expected. Price target 900/880. Syndicate Bank: Complex correction completed. Expect sharp fall to 60/59 in next few trading days.

Bank Nifty was range bound all day except last 2 hours of trading where it fall 1bout 100 points. Below is hourly chart of Bank Nifty: My assumption of ED may not be correct as wave 3 can be labelled 7 legged diametric pattern(Advance Elliott wave - Neo Wave pattern). It looks more probable pattern and hence entire pattern may be some very complex corrective pattern. The upside corrective wave (labelled as 4) looks like ABC pattern and downside wave may have started that may again take 7 legged pattern and behave similar to wave 3. In that case channel (Blue), Middle BB and Lower BB will provide Entry & Exit points. So we need to wait and watch! Median line of Inside Pitchfork acting as strong resistance to up move and Index is again reversed from that line!