MoneyNaad

As expected Bank Nifty traded lower awaiting RBI decision on rate change. Once news is out it fell and made low of 21488 and sharply bounce back making day's high at 21674. It closed at 21622. Hourly chart shows prices bounced back from LBB and closed above MBB. RSI also bounced from 50 level. These are indications of possibility of up move. Daily chart shows Bank Nifty moving along UBB and RSI 65 level is providing support. We can expect target of 21800/22000 in coming 1-2 trading sessions. Tomorrow above 21650 target is 21750/21850. Below 21590 target is 21500/21400.

Bank Nifty is steadily moving up before RBI's monetary decision on tomorrow. Opened mild Gap up and corrected making low at 21499. Later moved higher making all time high at 21699 and closing all time closing high at 21652. Bank Nifty may give some reaction if any negatives come from RBI's decision/commentary. Otherwise market already priced in no rate change. Overall Bank Nifty is poised for sharp up move towards 21800/22000 before closing of this week as it closed above 21565 as per our weekly levels.

Bank Nifty opened 90 points Gap up but corrected sharply to 21400 level. These sharp moves was due to triangle pattern waves. Bank Nifty 15-min chart shows correction terminating in ED/Triangle like pattern. It looks like Bank Nifty is came out of triangle pattern and we may see sharp up move towards 21800/22000 in coming 1-2 trading sessions. Tomorrow above 21575 target is 21670/21765. Below 21520 target is 21425/21330. Monthly Chart Breakout:  A look at monthly chart from triangle pattern structure is showing breakout. Upper line of triangle may provide strong support followed by strong support at 3 digit (Bank Nifty degree move) Gann No 20400. This is in alignment with weekly analysis https://optiontradingcafe.blogspot.in/2017/04/bank-nifty-weekly.html

In the last trading session Bank Nifty moved almost 150 point from day's low of 21410. But weekly call option prices hardly move much! What is the reason? Option prices depends mainly on factors such as price movement of underlying instrument, time left for expiry and volatility. Also move was not impulsive but slow up move taking almost whole day for move. In yesterday's session, India VIX index, measure of market volatility fall sharply by almost 7% due to lack of any global event and not much surprise expected from Monetary policy of RBI due on Thursday. Hence, call option prices did not move even when instrument(stock/index) prices moved favorably. It is better to stay away from option buying during such scenario. From above chart you can see option prices (21800CE) continuously moved up and down and trading is difficult in this case.Time factor was also against option pricing as next day was trading holiday! Some profit can be made only if you buy At-The-Mo

Bank Nifty gave all time high this week and closed also at all time weekly/monthly high at 21444 ! High made was 21696 on monthly expiry day- Mar 30th. It almost reached our target of 21800 (3 digit Gann No). Monthly chart showing Bank Nifty breaking out of Channel (Blue Dotted line) and moving along Gann 1/1 angle drawn from low of 13407(Feb 29, 2016). Coming Months it can move along 1/1 angle and move up. Breaking out above 1/1 angle will open possibilit y of sharp up move . Inside Pitchfork (drawn at low of 8366) is showing breakout while Bank Nifty is facing resistance at 0.5 lower SD line on Andrew's Pitchfork. Breaking this line (above 21800) and sustaining above it may take Bank Nifty towards Median line i.e. a target of 24000/25000 in coming months. Weekly chart shows bank Nifty bouncing back from lower 0.5 SD line on Andrew's Pitchfork (drawn at 13407). This week Bank Nifty may break 21800 and if sustained above that may reach target of 22500 (next 3 d